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Market and Economic Commentary

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Market & Economic Commentary

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June 14, 2010

This information is provided by First Trust Advisors L.P.


Monday, June 7, 2010

The price of copper has declined about 23% from its recent high on April 5, 2010. The decline is largely due to a stronger U.S. dollar and efforts to temper growth in China. Strong demand from China helped push the price of copper up twofold since 2004, according to Bloomberg. Demand for copper is expected to grow by 4% in 2010, and rise by 4.7% in 2014, according to Ricardo Alvarez Fuentes, general manager of the El Teniente division of Codelco, the world’s largest copper producer. Demand for copper increased an average of 2.7% per year from 1960-2009.

Tuesday, June 8, 2010

Russia is making a concerted effort to supplant the U.S. as the world’s top exporter of wheat, according to BusinessWeek. In the 1990s, Russia purchased wheat from U.S. farmers, but emerged as a major exporter in 2002 by selling 15.6 million tons abroad. Today, Russia exports 14% of the world’s wheat, up from 0.5% in 2000. The U.S.’s share of exports has declined from 26% to 19%. The U.S. Agriculture Department predicts that Russia will become the top wheat exporter by 2019.

Wednesday, June 9, 2010

More people quit their jobs in the past three months than were laid off, according to USA TODAY. Layoffs had exceeded voluntary departures for 15 consecutive months leading up to the reversal. Data dating back a century shows that quits rise and layoffs fall as the job market improves, according to Steven Davis, an economist at the University of Chicago. A recent surveypublished in the May edition of the Harvard Business Review revealed that close to 25% of companies’ top performers said they plan to leave their current job within a year. A net 982,000 jobs (495,000 private sector) have been created so far this year. Over 8 million jobs were lost during the recession.

Thursday, June 10, 2010

The cost of raising a child born in 2009 to age 18 for a middle income family will be $286,050, according to the Department of Agriculture (USDA). That expense covers food, shelter and other necessities. One silver lining is that expenses per child decrease as a family has more children (think sharing). Families with three children spend 22% less than those with two children. Parents will need an additional $127,683 to send a child born today to a median-priced state university when they turn 18, according to Mark Kantrowitz of FinAid.org. The USDA has been tracking these costs since 1960. In 1960, a middle-income family was looking at spending $25,230 ($182,860 in 2009 dollars) to raise a child.

Friday, June 11, 2010

Moody’s reported that the global speculative-grade default rate stood at 7.5% in May, down from 9.0% in April, according to Bloomberg. The U.S. speculative-grade default rate stood at 7.9%, down from 9.5%. Moody's is now forecasting a global default rate of 2.4% by December 2010 and 1.9% by May 2011. The default rate on senior loans stood at 6.18% in May, down from7.00% in April, according to Standard & Poor's LCD. The default rate isexpected to fall to 3-5% by yearend. The historical average is 3.44%.